Validating correlation, data visualisation, part 2

Hey Guys,

I’m still waiting for a friend to run some analysis if datasets exported via cryptory are correlated or not. Nevertheless I decided to make some data visualisation using simple charts in Excel. But before being able to easily open CSV files in Excel I needed to make some adjustments to these files by simply replacing “,” to “;” and “.” to “,”. After such a change performed in Notepad++ I was ready to open each of the in Excel and insert charts.

For the first file btc_coinmarket.csv  after opening in Excel I changed the order of columns to be: date, volume, open, high, low, close. Selecting these columns and insert Stock chart produced following screen:

coinmarket

Next file btc_gtrends.csv:

gtrends-buy-bitcoin

btc_metal.csv:

metal

USD-EUR exchange rate, from the file btc_rates.csv:

usd-eur

btc_reddit.csv:

reddit

Dow Jones Industrial Average stock from a file btc_stock.csv:

stock

So with a naked eye I see correlation between Google Trends for a phrase “buy bitcoin” and a price of Bitcoin. Regarding other sources I’m hesitant if there’s any link.

While writing this post I had one more idea – let’s compare charts of BTC-EUR trades with USD-EUR exchange rates. That being said we need some data from the database:

MariaDB [solocryptoprenuer]> select time, price from gdax_matches where product_id = 'BTC-EUR' into outfile 'btc-eur-matches.csv' fields terminated by ';' enclosed by '"' lines terminated by '\n';
Query OK, 130492 rows affected (10.42 sec)

Let’s plot a chart based on the exported data:

btc-eur-09-07-2018-20-58-48-25-07-2018-07-25-21

It’s representing 130,000 matched transactions. Maybe not ideal chart type, but trend is clearly visibile. Datetime range is between 09.07.2018 20:58:48 and 25.07.2018 07:25:21. Now it would be nice to have a graph for exchange rates between EUR and USD:

Przechwytywanie

Hard to say without calculating Pearson correlation coefficient. Looks like I need to dig into statistics a little bit more and/or ask a friend to help a bit. However it’s worth thinking if EUR-USD is let’s say growing then if BTC-EUR should be getting lower or higher ? Assuming USD is a static reference here then if EUR is getting stronger, meaning EUR-USD exchange rate is getting lower then using common sense BTC-EUR should be getting lower as well.

Thanks for reading,
Łukasz.

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