Loose thoughts on price predictions as well some of my crypto-history

What is driving people to buy / sell / hold cryptocurrencies ? Assuming of course they trade on their own..

In my case, many years ago, out of simple curiosity I started mining Dogecoins. It was December 2013. Long time ago. Simple, very simple graphics card in my laptop allowed me to quickly mine quite a lot, however difficulty was raising so much fast that I decided to buy strong computer with AMD Radeon R9 290X card. Investment returned in less than 2-3 months. That’s by the way also history of my dog, called “Toshi”, as the name  comes from the smallest amount of Bitcoin which is 1 satoshi. I wouldn’t be myself if I wouldn’t use this opportunity to paste a picture of my dog:

IMG_1792

Yes – this is Shiba Inu. The Dogecoin dog 🙂

Long story short, after a few months with Dogecoins I decided to buy real ASIC Bitcoin mining machine (from China) and after a few weeks I heard from my wife: it’s either me or that bloody machine. You know, it was heating up a room to almost 60 degrees Celsius (140 Farenheit), so I immediately answered: if I mine anything we’ll buy a dog. So we have a dog. Till today.. He’s crazy.. Oh and by the way – he costed me like 4 bitcoins. He owes me a lot nowadays!

After a year I decided to trade a little bit with real money with quite good results. Like 100% in 2 months of profit. I was playing with relatively small amounts. A few friends followed my steps with slightly bigger amounts and they were very, very happy. Good old times. If I only kept a few Bitcoins till 2018 🙂

Nevertheless here and there I sometimes bought a few coins, like Ethereum or Bitcoin, buy / sell / hold but everything for a very small scale. It was fun, but also costed me a lot of energy to keep my emotions down, try not to track rate every single moment. It was a bit tiring. Deep, deep inside I knew I should risk it all, take a loan and buy lots of coins and hold for a year or two. But didn’t have enough courage and moreover, most importantly had my wife as a rational thinker who would stop crazy ideas. To be honest it could all went down. It’s a lottery, it’s a bubble – nothing more, nothing less. However lottery with a potential of becoming something more. We can bet if it is real currency in 10-20 years, but it’s a bet like any other.

I need to add that in the meantime I created in 2014 my own cryptocurrency called “PolishCoin”. It could be checked for example here: https://www.spidersweb.pl/2014/02/polishcoin-polska-kryptowaluta.html  (article in polish language). I think I know a little bit more how it works than an average cryptocurrency user.

I quickly realised that any crypto-currency exchange rate is super dependent on news, articles, social engagement and various factors that are either influencing exchange rate up or down. It’s automatically followed by common faith of traders, influencers, investors, evangelists if rate is going to skyrocket or touch the ground. It’s also greatly influenced by governments who either allow or ban cryptocurriencies in their countries. Lastly huge devastation in exchange rate are causing hackers (or owners..) when some exchanges are being closed. And so on, and so forth.

What if there would be a tool to correlate media news regarding crypto curriencies, their tone and feelings followed by changes in exchange rates. Sounds like an interesting challange that could be checked.

And then there is whole bunch of auto-traders, who trade with scripts and approaches like the one I’d like to achieve. To be able to deteach all of human emotions and just allow programs to execute their algorithms. Either simple code, simple conditions (like my first a few tests) or some more sophisticated machine learing / deep learning approaches in order to try to predict change of exchange rate and made appriopriate investments decisions. We’ll see where it gets me.

I find this topic very exciting, which gives me a lot of fun and motivation.

Thanks for reading,
Łukasz.

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